Thoughts on the NWSL in 2026 and Beyond

I should start with the fact that I’m mostly brain-dumping here, so I may end of someplace unoriginal or lacking insight. Sorry. Just wanted to get it out.

I am going to start with a section of a thread on BlueSky that inspired me to write this post. In a summary of the state of soccer in the US, Tutul Rahman posted the following:

Rahman’s primary argument about what NWSL needs to do in 2026 is begin to shift away from a league that is limiting overhead to ensure survivability and shift toward establishing itself as the top global league in women’s soccer. He makes two important points via comparing NWSL’s landscape to two natural comparison leagues: the WNBA and MLS.

The WNBA has grown substantially in popularity over the last few years. However, unlike the NWSL, the WNBA does not have global competitors. Sure, there are leagues around the world, but they are not competing with the WNBA for talent or media attention. The WNBA is the apex league in its category fighting with other (primarily America) apex leagues. The WNBA is not trying to get more women’s basketball fans to care about their league. The WBB fans look to the WNBA. Instead, they’re trying to get more sports fans to be women’s basketball fans.

This isn’t true for NWSL. Leagues around the world (especially the top leagues in Europe and Mexico) are viable contenders for talent and fan/media attention. There are a good number of women’s soccer fans in the US, but they may turn their fandom to, say, the WSL in England, if that becomes the dominant league. Likewise, more and more, we’re seeing soccer fans around the world expand their fandom to the women’s game. Here, other leagues have the advantage of being able to field women’s teams with clubs that have established and known brands. That’s not the case with the NWSL. Don’t get me wrong, a number of NWSL teams are well-established brands within women’s soccer, but they don’t carry the broader brand recognition of, Chelsea FC or PSG or Bayern Munich.

Regarding MLS, it is also growing in popularity, both within the US and globally. However, it is in a very different market than NWSL. MLS is a mid-tier league, globally and domestically. It wants to get convince American sports fans to watch soccer (preferably MLS), and it wants to convince global soccer fans to watch American soccer. But to do this, it has to compete against many larger leagues. Unlike the WNBA, MLS cannot say, “Hey, we’re the best soccer league. Come check us out.” For NWSL, this is a possibility, at least within the realm of women’s soccer.

The NWSL probably doesn’t have the best team in the world. That’s probably FC Barcelona. However, it likely has the best “league” in the world, by which I mean the highest concentration of talent across all teams. It has gotten here through a couple key elements: (1) the salary cap helps maintain parity among teams and (2) there is a tremendous pipeline of talent through the NCAA system to replace players as they retire or leave for other leagues. This last point is hugely important for NWSL, as it is something most other nations are working to build in regards to the women’s game. The youth to professional pipeline in the US is just far more robust than most (maybe all?) other nations.

So the path the NWSL needs to cut in the next decade in unique to WNBA and MLS. Certainly, like both the WNBA and MLS, it needs to complete for the interest and investment of more sports fans. Unlike the WNBA, it has to understand that it will face viable competition from other women’s soccer leagues around the world for that interest and investment. Unlike MLS, the NWSL can be the power-player in an environment with genuine global competition, especially in the near term.

Sports Ownership as Viable Investment

Overall, I don’t actually think there was a lot that was discussed in the panel that we can used to know where the NWSL is going. Certainly, the panel allows us to make informed predictions, and some of those predictions will pan out. Still I don’t think Jessica Berman made any statements that were straightforwardly ‘this is what the league is going to do.’ We can, however, get some insight into what Rahman was getting at when he asked “Can the league change its mindset from austerity to leadership?”

Berman made a point during the panel that, starting in 2022, a primary part of her mission was “to really drive the sales of clubs all around the country and to engage in expansion.” She frames this with stating that global success in sports starts with good ownership. She noted that sports is now seen as an asset class that can provide returns in the long run. She’s asked if she thinks women’s sports can be viewed as a high-growth asset in the US and globally, and Berman responds, “Absolutely.” She points out that, “…in business, …sports is the highest growth asset class as compared to any other investment strategy. It’s the reason you see institutional capital coming into sports today because, when you compare it to stock market or real estate or other investment classes, sports over time performs, as long as you can hold it for multiple decades.”

Although this came before Berman’s section, chronologically, I think this point was reinforced by fellow panelist Tamika Tremaglio (former Executive Director of the NBA Player Association). She was asked about a CBA negotiation that helped players buy into private equity to buy into teams. Tremaglio noted that players are, themselves “business empires” and that team ownership is a pathway to creating “generational wealth”. She says that the private equity pathway “is… a way for money to make money when we aren’t still ‘making money’.” One needs look no further than the ownership lists of NWSL teams to see that these women’s soccer clubs are viewed as an investment asset for current and former athletes.

Is NWSL Leading or Being Austere?

If Rahman directed his question to Jessica Berman, I would expect her to argue that the league is being a leader. She would cite the same fact about expansion valuation that she cites in the panel: the Southern California teams joined for $2-3 million. Boston and Bay were in the $50 millions. Denver and Atlanta both topped $100 million. She’d also cite the purpose-built stadium for a women’s franchise and plans to develop additional women’s team stadia.

I would expect Rahman’s counter to be noting the growth of clubs (FC Barcelona, Chelsea, OL Lyonnes, etc.) and leagues (especially WSL in England and LigaF in Spain) genuinely threaten the league for competition for eyes. The WSL’s recent move away from the English FA to allow the clubs to manage the league themselves should help that league compete in a global market for women’s soccer fans. The Frauen-Bundesliga’s plan to do the same in Germany could see that league grow more competitive. Additionally, beyond the leagues themselves, the US Women’s National Team is not as dominant as it was 10 years ago. Right now, I don’t think it is outrageous to argue that England and Spain have better, stronger national teams that the US.

Berman would likely counter that the recent USWNT win in the Olympics, the US hosting the Men’s World Cup in 2026, the Summer Olympics in 2028, and Women’s World Cup in 2031 as establishing that the USWNT is strong and that interest in soccer (both among fans and business investors) should remain strong for the near term. I would expect Rahman to point to something like the recent High Impact Player (HIP) rule as a risk to keeping the top US players in the US to ensure they’re playing futures, which could harm interest in the NWSL even if interest in soccer in the US continues to grow.

How I Come Down on This

I think Berman’s arguments carry more weight than I suspect most are willing to give them. For example, I suspect that the valuation growth of the league made the CBA wins (contracts with clubs, free agency, no drafts, player agreements for trades) easier for the NSWLPA to get. The more wealth the league is generating, the more power and flexibility will be afforded to players. I don’t say that the strip the NWSLPA of their agency and efforts to advocate for themselves but to recognize the fundamental power-imbalance that players experience. Likewise, the growing interest and financial investment in the league creates opportunities for the Trinity Rodmans and Midge Purces to pursue other branding and business ventures. Without the growth of the NWSL, is Midge Purce still a business woman? Probably. But does she get The Offseason off the ground in 2014? Probably not.

That being said, I think the Board of Governors have to take seriously the fact that the NWSL is not on an island, and I think this starts with something Jessica Berman says in the ‘Beyond the Boys’ Club’ panel. When asked how she grew the brand of the NWSL, Berman notes, “When Americans close their eyes and think of greatness and the sport of soccer, they actually think of women first. The US Women’s National Team has captivated the hearts and minds of Americans for decades. There just wasn’t a business around it.” I completely agree with this. I don’t think the primary driving factor of interest in the NWSL is the NWSL, itself. I think it is watching star American players.

Grabbing from a McKinsey Report on the growth opportunity in women’s sports, it notes:

However, this growing interest in women’s sports isn’t because fans of men’s sports have suddenly remembered their long-running family affinity for a women’s team. It’s driving by a growing interest in the novelty of women’s sports anchored to connections to individual women athletes. Again, from the report:

Continuing:

Certainly, what this says is that, after the 2027 Women’s World Cup, we should expect to see a surge of interest in women’s soccer. But, if the players that emerge as the stars all play in Europe, and new fans can watch those leagues on TV, there’s every reason to think they’ll become fans of their favorite player’s club, not their local NWSL club.

Fans in Atlanta are excited for their upcoming NWSL club because it promises the chance to see the best American women play live, some of whom will be wearing Atlanta’s colors. But, if by 2030, most of those women are playing in Europe because the pay is better, and they can still get exposure to branding/endorsement opportunities, the NWSL is not likely to see interest from potential investors to shell out $200 million for a franchise in Miami or Dallas or Phoenix.

Another factor that’s particularly an issue to the NWSL, your casual American fan of men’s soccer know the clubs women play for in Europe because they’re the same, well-known clubs that the men play for. This isn’t the case for the NWSL. If you asked the casual men’s soccer fan to name the club Marta plays for, I’m guessing they don’t know. And when you tell them it’s the Orlando Pride, I’m guessing the majority would say they’ve never heard of the Orlando pride. So if the leagues in England, Spain, or Germany attempt to steal eyeballs from the NWSL, they’re doing it with already established brands.

This also matters for players around the world. The NWSL is lucky to have an incredible player development pipeline already established via the NCAA, so it is not desperate to sign players from abroad to ensure quality talent in the league. But it says something about a league’s status when players dream of playing there, and I think most women’s players around the world dream of playing in Europe.

To be clear, this isn’t because women’s teams in Europe carry loads of prestige. The overwhelming majority don’t. FC Barcelona wasn’t a good team until 2011/2012, and their glory years really start in 2019. Manchester United had to reestablish their women’s team in 2018 after not having a women’s team for over a decade. Real Madrid bought another club and strapped their name on it in 2019. Linda Caicedo didn’t join Real Madrid Femenino because of the long and glorious history of that women’s team. It’s a couple years old! But Real Madrid? Now that has history. In the end, when it comes to club soccer, the prestige is in Europe. Europe is the place to be.

Don’t get me wrong, I do think players dream of playing in the United States, and given time, I think NWSL teams will establish their own prestige. But that takes time, so it is currently a competitive disadvantage for the NWSL versus their European competitors.

What the NWSL Needs to Do to Lead

Now, I’m not naive on this. The NWSL leadership is going to be cautious in expanding player wages. As was discussed in another panel at the summit, player acquisition is the biggest risk/expense as an owner when investing in a sports team. So, regardless of my personal views or preferences, I completely understand why the league would take a cautious approach to expanding player wages. Likewise, although there wasn’t a negotiation in regard to HIP, I can imagine the Board of Governors view the last CBA concessions as grounds for them being more restrictive while trying to find a solution to keeping Trinity Rodman in the league.

But I think the primary message we can take from the HIP rule is that the league really only had a couple players in mind (maybe just Rodman!) when developing the rule. Solve that immediate problem and get on with business.

HIP has problems beyond it being very limited in scope (like how that limited scope is achieved), but it seemed like it’s primary mandate was limiting scope. So long as the league can keep the Trinity Rodmans and Sophia Wilsons, it’s no big deal if lose a few Naomi Girmas or Alyssa Thompsons. Maybe that works out, but I fear it’s a recipe for simply delaying when you lose your Rodmans and Wilsons.

Considering the NWSLPA is challenging the rule, and seems to have some strong foundation for their challenge, I don’t know what will be in place for the league as the 2026 season approaches. Also, I don’t think the Board of Governors are complete idiots. I have to think they’re aware of the potential challenges coming from the major leagues in Europe. Setting aside the baffling elements of HIP, what troubles me about it is that is suggests NWSL doesn’t view that challenge as being all that present. They may know it’s coming, but they don’t think it’s very close yet. And you know what? That may be true.

But what’s going to allow the league to compete is unleashing it’s players. Until American women’s sports build generational history, women’s sports fans’ primary draw will be the players. I would expect the league to take actions that, even if limited in scope, would reflect an investment in the players, writ large. HIP clearly isn’t that. It suggested that the league has a very limited scope of which players are essential. Protect Trinity Rodman, but Midge Purce can be sold to Manchester City for a pretty penny so long as overhead costs are kept lower for the next set of investors in a new franchise.

So, Jeff, What Does the League Need to Do?

Again, I’m not naive. Balancing expenses with returns are a factor the league has to consider. Current and potential investors can’t put loads of money toward new franchises, new stadia, and dedicated training facilities while also shelling out boatloads of money to player wages unless they’re willing to operate at major deficits, and that’s not sustainable.

But to Rahman’s challenge to abandon austerity for leadership, it feels like the league’s leadership still views most of the players as an expense, first. In actuality, those players are essential to the league’s growth. Growth in the league is going to come from connecting fans to the players, and real leadership will find ways to invest in the players, all the players.

If it’s not raising the salary cap, the league absolutely needs to find ways to invest in their players. Frankly, it’s a silly way to judge who should be eligible for a certain contract, but the Most Marketable Athletes list explicitly acknowledges that the players do more for the league than produce stats. The last CBA showed that the league can provide genuinely positive change for the welfare of the players, and genuine leadership from the NWSL will expand that. HIP really feels like the Board of Governors are not ready for that kind of leadership yet. It may be a hedge that can still afford, but the rest of the world is coming, so that time is rapidly running out.