The 2026 NWSL season kicked off last weekend, and the Thorns opened the season right where they finished the 2025 season, on the road at the Washington Spirit.

Coming into this match, there were A LOT of questions surrounding the Thorns, but they can basically summarized as: how in the world can this team outscore their opponent?

On the defensive end, they lost their elite defensive midfielder, did not improve the mediocre central defenders, and were left with a third-string keeper who had never previously started a match in NWSL.

On the offensive end, they are fine, but the real threat is still recovering from injury. The opening-match starters a perfectly good, but they’re not gonna win a goal fest, and the situation with the defense suggested this could be a goal fest, at least for the Spirit.

And, of course, the coach was so new, he hadn’t set foot in Portland.

And the opening 10 minutes did little to allay those fears. The Spirit created a few dangerous chances, including a 6’ minute shot from Leicy Santos that was blocked by Sam Hiatt. The Spirit put all of the pressure on while the Thorns struggled to get out of their defensive third.

Once the Thorns got through that opening period, they were able to settle down and get some defensive control. The Thorns were never really offensively dominant, but they didn’t necessarily have to be. The first half was about getting comfortable, defensively. Early in the second half, the Thorns scored the match winner on a great ball from Obaze to find Tordin behind the Spirit defense. She was able to hold possession for Moultrie to catch up. Tordin played her the ball, and Moultrie’s first touch took her past Tara Rudd and 1v1 with the Spirit keeper, who she easily beat for the 1-0 advantage.

With that lead established early in the second half, the Thorns could continue to focus on sound defending, which they did. Subs were made. Sophia Wilson returned. And the Thorns left DC with a well earned, if surprising, 3 points.

I know there is limited value in comparing the 2026 opener to the 2025 semifinal because there are some important differences on both teams. Still, I think the key to this game is found in comparing one chart between those two matches: the Thorns passing network chart. Importantly, I’m not going to show the passing networks to highlight anything about how the Thorns were passing. I’m including it because it shows just how much more in control the Spirit were in last year’s semifinal than in the opener.

Here is the Thorns Passing Network from the 2025 Semifinal loss:

Again, the thing to note about this chart is that it is tracking common passes between Thorns players in relation to their average position on the field.

Look how shifted the Thorns are to the left!

In the final stretch of the season and playoffs, the Spirit were getting a lot of offensive success by attacking through Rose Kouassi down their right side. They continued that approach against the Thorns, and they were dominating Reyes and Obaze on the Thorns left, so much so that Coffey was constantly shifting that way to help. This is reflected in their positioning. Look at how shifted Obaze (LCB), Hiatt (RCB), and Coffey (LDM) are to be closer to Reyes to help with the Spirit focusing on that side of the Thorns defense.

Now, look at the same chart from the 2026 season opener:

Look how balanced that is!

Ultimate, what do I think led to this? The double pivot.

The Spirit set up to attack the wings, and we saw some of their best chances in the first half come from wide play. Early in the match, Rodman and Kouassi got to the end line multiple times, putting dangerous crosses or cutbacks into the box. The Thorns were able to clear those early chances. After the initial 10 minutes when it looked like Thorns might get steamrolled, the team settled down and closed off that wide play. They did this, primarily, by closing off those wide channels, preventing the Spirit from getting behind the wide defenders. On the few occasions it still happened after that opening stretch, the Thorns defense kept excellent shape, giving no room for a Spirit attacker to get shots off or Jessie Fleming blocked the attempted cross.

Put another way, look back at the passing network chart. When the Spirit had the ball, they couldn’t exploit the space between the outside backs and the center backs because of the defensive efforts of Bogere and Fleming. That allowed the Thorns to maintain a more natural shape when shifting to offense, and their passing network looks more natural.

As the Thorns got that stability, they were able to hold a higher defensive line, shift the match closer to the middle of the field, and dampen the Spirit’s ability to be dangerous.

Again, you can see in the semifinal, the average defensive action for the Thorns was just 37 meters up the field, basically within their defensive third. In the 2026 season opener, they moved that up to 43 meters and into the middle of the park.

Also, look at the defensive actions in the picture on the right. See that empty space in the middle of the box just above the semicircle (known as Zone 14). There are no defensive actions there, which is a bit weird because that’s a prime danger spot for attacks. But that’s not where the Spirit were attacking. They were looking to attack through the spaces just to the left and right of that zone, and you see a good number of defensive actions there. That was the double pivot limiting that space.

By the end of the match, the Spirit were most threatening when putting in crosses from deeper positions. Instead of getting to the end line and crossing or cutting back, they looked more dangerous putting in crosses from 20-30 yards out.

Don’t get me wrong. I don’t think this match reveals the Thorns are set to challenge for the shield and win the championship. There are a lot of unknowns still, but the big question coming into this match was the defensive solidity of the Thorns considering the loss of Sam Coffey and no central defender additions. The answer was, at least for this match, yes, the Thorns could be defensively sound.

Could this match have gone differently? Oh yes. If the Spirit get a goal in those opening minutes, this match may be very different. The Thorns would have likely been a little more open and aggressive chasing a goal, and that would have played right into the hands of the Spirit.

Jessie Fleming.

Honestly, I think I can leave it there, but here are a couple reasons why. First, her heat map:

Bogere and Fleming switched sides a couple times early in the match, but Fleming was huge in helping shut down shutting down the wide channels and, when the Thorns could get pressure in their attacking third, she helped keep that high pressure.

You can also see this in her defensive actions:

Perhaps where Sam Coffey was most elite was in recoveries. If the ball was loose and in her vicinity, Coffey would gobble it up more often than not. We may want to see more of that from Fleming, but it’s hard to argue with her work on that left half-space helping to keep Trinity Rodman (and Rose Kouassi in the second half) quiet.

The thing is, I think Fleming can have this kind of outing on a week-in-week-out basis, but if she’s having to put in this kind of performance every week, the Thorns will be in trouble this year. Early season? That’s fine. A lot of adjustments will be happening. End of season? The story will be that the Thorns failed to find any ability to manage games.

So far, I’ve generally had positive things to say about the Thorns in the opener, but was this actually a good performance? I don’t think so.

Here’s the thing, it is very difficult to assess the Thorns right now because Vilahamn is so new to the coaching role that it is difficult to know how he wants to play and how well the team is adapting to that style. So we can’t really assess the Thorns on that level.

Additionally, a lot about this team, especially offensively, carries a big “when the starts fully return” element to it. As a result, it is tricky to give a big picture assessment of the Thorns. We don’t know a lot of what the new ‘big picture’ looks like, and some major parts of it are delayed by physical necessity.

Instead, I’ve largely assessed this performance in comparison to the semifinal loss to end the 2025 season. In that regard, I think there are a lot of positives, especially defensively. But I don’t think those positives translate into general positives.

The Thorns looked very shaky in the opening 10 minutes, and while they did get settled, they never looked like they had an attack plan they could execute during the first half. Half time adjustments may have been made inre: the attack, but the early goal kind let the Thorns off the hook as it allowed them to settle back into their defense-first approach and see out the match.

Before this match, I wanted to see the team to have a decent defensive showing and hopefully some minutes for Sophia Wilson. That’s basically what we saw. The Spirit didn’t have their best match, but they’re also working things out in a post-Croix Bethune era. The Thorns were able to hold the Spirit at bay until they could be a bit more defensively settled then controlled. The Spirit did not look all that dangerous in the second half.

But this match could have gone very differently, and some of the teams that looked sharper in week 1 would have eaten this defense alive. That’s fine.

Again, the season is long and playoff spots are plenty. The Thorns don’t have to be great right now. They need to tread water and show development. They did that against the Spirit and earned 3 points. That’s great, but let’s not kid ourselves. They didn’t play great.

Like the Thorns, the Seattle Reign opened the 2026 season visiting the team that eliminated them in the 2025 playoffs. Also like the Thorns, the Reign exacted revenge by heading home with a surprise victory. Also like the Thorns, the Reign were perhaps lucky to get full points.

The Reign’s match against the Orlando Pride didn’t go the same as the Thorns match against the Spirit. The Reign came out quite aggressively, pressing high and generally looking to possess and attack. This put Orlando in the position of defending and counterattacking.

Frankly, the Reign stole this match. They won 2-1, but the stats (and eye test) said this should have been a victory for the Pride. Futmob’s xG stats had Orlando winning 2-1. The fact of the matter is, the Reign made defensive errors and struggled to handle Orlando’s counterattacks, and just didn’t get punished for it.

This isn’t all doom and gloom for the Reign. This was partially due to early-season rust and injuries, particularly in the back. But still, like the Thorns, the Reign come into this match with legit questions about whether or not they’re… well… legit.

There are two questions hanging over this Reign side right now. First, after the opening match, will they take the same attacking approach like they did with the Pride? Second, what impact does the long delayed return travel have for this team?

Whether or not the Reign play as aggressively as they did against the Pride, the Thorns will still see their backline as a weakness to exploit. The Reign backline struggled to maintain possession when they were rushed. The pride didn’t always press in a proper sense, but even just a high line an one player closing caused the Reign defenders to rush passes leading to a number of turnovers. This is something the Thorns front line tends to be good at, and this could give the Thorns possession higher up the field without having to get it there starting from their defensive third.

Against the Pride, the Reign defense also struggled a bit with long balls over the top. Now, the Pride were playing such balls to Barbara Banda, but the Thorns not having an equivalent alternative to Banda doesn’t mean they lack players who can be dangerous in similar situations. Tordin, Turner, Moultrie, and Wilson (limited minutes and all) can exploit a mediocre defense in long-ball situations.

Unlike the match against the Spirit, I think we should expect to see more out of the offense from the Thorns, and I think Thorns should be able to get at this Reign defense.

Injury issues are a major cause of the the Reign’s situation, and those injury issues aren’t going anywhere:

Although there are a lot of positives for this match, I do want to highlight a couple areas where the Thorns need to be cautious.

The biggest worry I have is related to the Reign’s high press. When the Pride had a goal kick, the Reign were quick to press and close down the Pride defense. The thing is, the Pride are decent at handling this. The Thorns are not, and they haven’t been for a few years now.

Assuming the Reign implement this same pressure, the Thorns will probably benefit from a ‘kick long’ approach. I think the Thorns can handle this. But the Reign showed they were working out more aggressive patterns of high pressure on the defense, and this attacks the Thorns biggest possession weakness.

The other concern I have is that the Reign have quality out wide, and I could see them looking to get Dahlien, Adames and/or Mondésir active on those wings. I still think this is a potential weakness for the Thorns, especially if the Reign can get Dahlien isolated againt Reyes. After the Spirit match, I’m a little less worried about this Thorns side handling attacks from wide positions, but I still worry about it.

Finally, there’s also just the uncertainty of what the Reign will bring. With Mia Fishel being added to their injury list, the Reign lineup becomes harder to predict. I’m guessing Mercado will take her place in the middle of the attack, but I really don’t know. This could be to the Thorns advantage, but this kind of uncertainty can lead to unpredicted matchup issues.

An observation I made in the Thorns matchup against the Spirit was that Fleming and Bogere seemed to switch sides with each other, but I couldn’t figure out why. They started the match with Fleming on the left and Bogere on the right. At just about the 10th minute, they swapped and Fleming was on the right and Bogere was on the left. Then, again, in the 20th minute, the swapped back to Fleming on the left and Bogere on the right. This held for the rest of the match, including when Shae Harvey subbed in.

I am really curious why they swapped. Was it matchup related? The Spirit were shifting players into different places, so hard to identify there. Was it just to get a feel for the two setups? They did seem timed to the opening two 10-minute intervals, but I couldn’t see any particular performance advantage. There may be nothing to it. Just an observation.

Looking at Bogere for a second, she was definitely behind the pace of the match, and she’ll need to adapt to the game. No reason to doubt she can handle it, and she wasn’t poor, but I think we’ll want to see more from her if she’s going to be a starter.

Thorns vs Reign, Saturday, March 21, 10pm eastern on Prime Video.