The 2026 NWSL season opens with the Portland Thorns returning to Audi Field, the site of where their 2025 season ended, as they take on the Washington Spirit. The Thorns enter this season with a lot of questions unanswered or, at best, partially answered. Let’s hazard some guesses at the answers. We’ll look at the roster, guess at some lineups the Thorns might use, and explore how they might play.

The Thorns roster is currently in a very weird spot because the bulk of the offseason “acquisitions” are the plethora of players returning from injury and maternity leave. Caiya Hanks, Morgan Weaver, Marie Müller, and, of course, Sophia Wilson are all returning. Likewise, M.A. Vignola returns from an injury that saw her miss the last few matches of the 2025 season. HOWEVER, aside from Vignola, none of those players are able to go a full 90 minutes yet. Müller and Wilson are fit enough to play, but the others are still weeks to months away from returning.

Add to that Julie Dufour may come back before the end of the season, but it will be close to the end of the season. Bella Bixby is out for the season, and Mackenzie Arnold is away with Australia to start the season. And, finally, Daiane is on loan in Mexico. Oh yeah, and Sam Coffey was sold.

Aside from the returning players, there have been some additions. Shae Harvey, Carolyn Calzada, and Maddie Padelski were all signed from the NCAA. Norwegian Cassandra Bogere was signed from SK Brann. Finally, the Thorns have added Mackenzie Wood on loan, and currently have Renee Lyles, Jennie Immethun, and Erin McKinney on short-term contracts.

The Thorns roster currently looks as follows:

Although the roster looks good, if perhaps containing so gaps to be filled in the summer, the roster at the start of the season screams “placeholder“, and that makes figuring out these initial matches difficult.

Naturally, we can tack on to that the fact that the Thorns now have a new head coach in Robert Vilahamn, but we haven’t seen the team play with Vilahamn at the helm. Despite these unknowns, let’s take a hazard at how the Thorns might line up against the Washington Spirit on Friday night.

I wrote a post a few weeks ago looking at how the Thorns might line up shortly after the news of the sale of Sam Coffey. At the time, I focused primarily on whether or not the Thorns would use Harvey as a proper defensive midfielder or pair her with Jessie Fleming in something more closely approximating a double-pivot. In 2025, the Thorns rolled out both forms of this 433/4231-style formation. Interestingly, in the opening preseason friendly that we could watch, the Thorns came out with a proper defensive midfielder, but it was Jessie Fleming in that role. With her, Mimi Alidou played the 8 role and Liv Moultrie played the 10. I don’t think it worked great, but I think Alidou was the weakest link. Fleming was serviceable as the 6.

In that initial post, I stuck with that general 433/4231 setup because that seemed to best suite the Thorns’ roster. Despite there being some additions, that 433/4231 still seems the most natural fit for the players. So if I had to hazard a guess, the Thorns will open in their season playing in a 433. Not only does it seem to fit the players available to start the season, it’s what they played the majority of last season. Until Vilahamn has time to work with the team and tweak structure/tactics, it’s hard to think they’ll reinvent the wheel day one.

My projected starting lineup looks as follows:

This would have the Thorns playing much like they did in the second preseason CVI match, against the Houston Dash. Fleming played a fairly defensive role in the central defense, functioning like a proper double pivot with both Harvey and Bogere.

Truthfully, I’ve kept this lineup quite true-to-form to how the Thorns played in the final stretch of the 2025 season. The one spot that I think is most up-for-grabs is that right wing position. I’ve got Spaanstra there, but I think she’s the most replaceable.

The two names I don’t have in that starting lineup but could start are Mimi Alidou and Deyna Castellanos. From the perspective of recent performance, Alidou had a pretty decent run with Canada in the SheBelieves Cup, and she could feasibly play in the right wing spot instead of Spaanstra. She could also play as the central attacking midfielder, and Moultrie could moved out to the right wing. I don’t think I like that option, but I think it’s a better fit for Alidou.

Castellanos has a similar impact. You could start her on the left wing, and have Turner start in the central forward position for Tordin or out right for Spaanstra. You could have Castellanos, herself, start as the central forward for Tordin. Or, again, you could start Castellanos as the central attacking midfielder and shift Moultrie to the right wing.

I don’t think Castellanos has really found her place in the Thorns lineup, and it’s hard to see her starting. At the same time, she’s a very good player and a struggling-for-form Castellanos is still a dangerous player.

Personally, I would prefer to see Alidou start wide right in place of Spaanstra. I like what Alidou brings in terms of pressing and directness in possession. Ultimately, I think Alidou is just a bigger threat out wide than Spaanstra. However, if you asked me where I’d put my money down for the actual lineup, it’s Spaanstra. She’s better, defensively, on the wing, and she’s been playing there more regularly.

As I noted above, staying true-to-form is the most likely outcome as Vilahamn gets settled, but there is a formation the Thorns used once in the 2025 season that they could trot out now and may work: a 442 diamond.

On June 21, 2025, the Thorns played this formation against the Chicago Stars, and they were fairly dominant in that match and earned a 1-0 victory. Now, the thing one has to note here, it was against the 2025 Chicago Stars. However, even with that caveat, the lineup did seem to the team in a couple ways.

Most importantly, it really seemed to help the side build from the back. I believe it was in the xOwnGoals preview of the Thorns, but it might have been in the Rose City Breakdown interview with the xOwnGoals gents, it was noted that Olivia Moultrie is quite good at getting the ball to the attackers in dangerous spots, but that the Thorns were not very good at getting the ball to Moultrie. This is, to my mind, the biggest weakness of the Thorns, at least offensively. If they have possession deep, they are very poor and progressing to the midfield and into the attack.

This isn’t new. This goes back to Mike Norris. Without targeted coaching, I think the solution is to boot the ball long and win the second ball. Frankly, when the Thorns had Sam Coffey and her elite recovery ability, I think it’s criminal they didn’t just boot it long but, instead, pretended they could build out of the defense. Sure, it’s more aesthetic and everyone is doing it, but the Thorns were not an aesthetically pleasing team, anyway, and they were just shit at building out of the back.

When you watch that match against Chicago, you see the Thorns suddenly able to form the kinds of triangles necessary to build out of the back. They could find shorter passes to move past the defensive lines and get into the attack, but they could also find better gaps for line-splitting passes.

Consider these two buildups:

In the first, Hiatt drives forward into open space. She’s being closed down, but she’s got three options in view: Torpey on the wing, Fleming directly in front of her, and Moultrie in the center circle. Now, let’s be honest, the Moultrie pass would be tough for Hiatt, but if Liv continues to come to her, it’s on or opening more space for Fleming. Importantly, if Hiatt plays to Fleming or Torpey, both have an immediate next pass: Fleming to Torpey or Torpey to Tordin.

Alternatively, Hiatt can pull the ball back and play to Coffey who would have a lot of space to run into with Moultrie and Fleming as potential targets.

Finally, Hiatt also has the option she chooses: a pass beyond that midfield line to Tordin in attack.

Here’s the second build up:

The ball is played to Obaze, who has options developing. Reyes is immediately open wide, and Sugita is retreating into space to become available. Sugita’s retreat, in fact, provides more space for Reyes because she draws a defender to her run. But if neither option looks good, Obaze can got back to Bixby or across to Hiatt.

Obaze plays to Reyes, and we’ve got a similar situation. Reyes can play back to Obaze (and, importantly, watch that Obaze moves toward the line to make a return easier on Reyes). Coffey’s run has made her an easy target. If she wanted, Reyes can play to Fleming in the center circle. But, of course, Sugita’s intelligent backtracking quickly turns into a progressive run up that left wing.

In both buildups, the defenders in possession had options, and their passing options had second-level options. That’s just not common with the Thorns.

Consider this moment in the preseason match against Angel City:

When the ball is played to Perry, it’s forcing the Angel City defense to shift, which is good. That’s when gaps open for progressive passes. But as you can see, there are not many options. In screen, she’s got a marked Reyes out wide and Fleming front of her. You may think there’s a longer pass on, but after she plays to Fleming and the camera pans, you see there really isn’t. So, in the end, Perry only had the one pass - to Fleming.

When Fleming receives the ball, what are her options? Basically none. Reyes is still marked, and the player marking Moultrie presses, but at an angle the closes off Moultrie. Fleming can’t go back to Perry either, as she’s been cut off. In fairness to Perry, it looks like she’s beginning to move into a space to become open for Fleming, but that needs time to develop. The structure of the movement and buildup meant Fleming was immediately isolated and facing pressure. Certainly, Fleming has a poor first touch, and that makes the situation worse, but she didn’t have a viable passing option.

There were runs Reyes and Moultrie could have made to give Fleming options, but they didn’t make those runs. I highlight a few more of these moments in my post about the opening half of that preseason match against Angel City.

Sure. There is some preseason rust at play, but I think the biggest reason for this is that the Thorns just don’t drill around the kinds of movements players should make during this phase of buildup. Let me be clear, they weren’t coaching it last June when they played Chicago, either. The difference, I think, is the formation. I think that the way the players end up spread on the field works better for the Thorns in the buildup phase because they’re better positioned to find triangles. Since the movement isn’t being drilled, and the Thorns center backs are not elite passers, having a system that naturally makes it easier on everyone to find passing lanes benefited the Thorns in their buildup and may be worth exploring against the Spirit.

So, what might a 442 Diamond look like with this current roster:

As with the 433 options, Mimi Alidou and Deyna Castellanos can also be slotted into the lineup for Bogere, Tordin, or in Moultrie’s spot, moving Moultrie to a different position.

In addition to the way I think the shape helps the Thorns in buildup, it also puts more bodies in the center of the midfield, giving them a solid numerical advantage there.

However, I have two concerns with this formation. First, it puts Harvey in as a stand-alone defensive mid. Fleming and Bogere could remain fairly defensive, but that risks leaving Moultrie and the forwards isolated after a quick buildup. Consider the second gif from the Chicago match. Sugita sends Turner down the wing, but Turner doesn’t have much in the way of attacking support. She’s having to find Tordin between three defenders while under pressure.

Second, the midfield four in a 442 diamond will play quite narrow to clog up the midfield, leaving space on the wings. The Washington Spirit have some talented players on the wings, and with the departure of Croix Bethune, they may be more apt to exploit those wings. Vignola and Reyes are already likely to have their hands full with Rose Kouassi, Trinity Rodman, Sophia Cantore, and (potentially) Claudia Martínez.

So the 442 diamond may be a formation to consider, but it may need to wait for another match.

Or, of course, Robert Vilahamn may have something totally different in mind, and the Thorns look nothing like what I’m projecting.

Let’s be honest, the first match of the season doesn’t have long-term implications unless everyone gets injured. The Thorns looks really horrible in the first half of the first match in 2025, and they finished the regular season in 3rd place. So, when it comes to what to look for in this first match, I think it is going to be less in the overall style and outcome and more in some of the small details.

Vilahamn has said he will be present as a supporter more so than coach for this first match, which isn’t surprising, but he’s surely been getting briefs from Lowdon and co. and will have some top-priority

For example, what is the formation, who is playing where, and what are the subs made. Some of this is going to be situation, but some of it will likely signal some early thoughts among the coaching staff. Does Renee Lyles play or Valerín Loboa? This could be telling about where Loboa stands. She’s 18, sure, but I don’t know if she wants to be that far down on the depth chart.

Assuming a double pivot in central midfield, are they staggered (suggesting one is primarily a 6 and the other primarily an 8), or are they basically in a line with both having periods as a 6 and an 8?

In terms of weakness, as with the playoff semifinal, I think the Spirit will look to attack the Thorns out wide. In 2025, they overloaded on the Thorns’ left trying to isolate Kouassi on Reyes. I really like Reyes, but her weakness is 1v1 defending, and she is prone to getting beat. In this match, Reyes will likely start on the right, which I think helps her defensively. I think she’s just more comfortable defending from that side. But if I’m the Spirit, I’m still looking to find opportunities to get Reyes and Vignola in 1v1 defensive situations. How do the Thorns combat this? In the playoffs, they just didn’t combat it. They were lucky to not concede from those moment, but you could see Reyes and Obaze were overwhelmed. The Spirit have one of the most exciting, young attackers in the world in Claudia Martínez. The young Paraguayan will be hungry to show her abilities at a higher level, and she will be a handful for this Thorns central defense. If the Spirit are able to get to the endline from wide positions, the Thorns could be in for a busy night.

Lastly, I think it will be interesting to see how Castellanos is used. She can play a lot of positions well, but she’s not played any all that great with the Thorns. Is she showing signs of finding a place and a position? Do we see something settling for her in this opening match.

Early in the 2025 season, I had this exchange on Blue Sky. It followed a loss by the Washington Spirit by the KC Current:

The Spirit began that season much like the Thorns do this season. Key players were absent to start the season, and the Spirit were, at times, shaky. After the match against KC, I made an offhand comment about the Spirit needing a bit of a think. As the Spirit notes, the real season for the 2025 Spirit began when the players returned.

I have a similar take on the 2026 Portland Thorns. The real season begins when the coach is settled, returning players have properly returned. As fans, we have to be a bit patient with the team. But I made the ‘bit of a think’ comment because the beginning of the season still matters. The Thorns don’t need to be perfect. They don’t even need to be great. But they need to get some results. The Spirit looked very inconsistent in their play. They won their first match by scraping out a win against Houston, which wasn’t impressive. Then they looked lost against KC. But after that, the got three straight shutout wins against Bay FC, Racing Louisville, and Orlando Pride. Those early points were very important in them finishing 2nd in the league. If the Spirit don’t get results turned around early, they probably still make the playoffs, but they could be much lower on the table and eliminated in an early round. Instead, they finished second and played in their second-consecutive NWSL Final.

So, as Thorns fans, we don’t have to look great. We don’t have to win every match in this opening stretch of the season. But we do need to get some points as a platform for the latter portions of the season. The “real” season.

The opening match for the Thorns takes place on Friday, March 13. Kickoff is at 8pm eastern/5pm pacific. If you can’t be there live, you can catch the match streaming on Amazon Prime.

I will likely have some post-match thoughts and analysis, but that will likely happen midweek. Next week, I want to check back in on the leagues around the Americas.